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At the beginning of 2024, I made 7 predictions because I felt emboldened that I had predicted two major events correctly in the preceding years. Out of my seven 2024 predictions, I got five right, one is too early to tell, and one wrong:
(1) “Bitcoin and Ethereum will keep going up, in spite of volatility.” (check)
(2) “The housing market will improve as interest rates go down, the economy will do well.” (check)
(3) “Interest rates will remain the same for about 3-6 months into 2024, then the Fed will start lowering the federal reserve rate a quarter point at a time.” (check) (Even though belatedly in the 9th month of 2024, by one point.
(4) “OpenAI will lose the copyright violation lawsuit filed by the New York Times, triggering a major limitation of ChatGPT’s data sources, to non-proprietary data. The US Congress will further legislate AI with privacy, safety, national security protections and against biases and disinformation.” (“half check”: wait and see:)
NYT v. OpenAI is still in court. Currently, there is no overarching federal AI Act. The closest initiative is President Biden’s executive order on the ‘Safe, Secure, and Trustworthy Development and Use of AI,’ issued on October 30, 2023.
Colorado passed the Colorado AI Act and has arguably established the foundational framework for a comprehensive US AI Act, borrowing several elements from the EU AI Act. What the Trump Administration will do is not yet clear.
(5) “Politically, there will hardly be a dull day in 2024, and there will be the largest voter turnout ever in US history for the Presidential Election in November.” (Half check:)
Two assassination attempts in a year can hardly be called dull.
The General Election had a 64% voter turnout rate, In comparison, the 2020 general election had a 66% turnout rate, the largest in a century thanks to mail-in ballots due to Covid restrictions.
“Donald Trump will not be the president of the United States.” (Did I get that completely wrong!) Well, I underestimated the pain of the pocket books of voters, and overestimated the power of a criminal conviction with 34 felony counts.
Not even AI can rescue us from the existential crisis humans have inflicted upon ourselves and the environment. The consumerist lifestyle is rapidly making planet Earth inhospitable to more and more species, ourselves included. This is the one and only prediction I am making.
Personally, the 2024 Presidential election changed me: I have learned to really understand different points of view, while standing firm for what I believe in, and to tune out biased pontifications, verify sources of information, and to mentally meditate. Frankly my dear, no empire lasts forever. But I stubbornly choose to believe in the American Dream.
Here is to 2025, fasten your seatbelt!
©Joanne Z. Tan all rights reserved.
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